Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8ee…9e81
sports · 350 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,210 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,991 · open −$968
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37,583
Realized−$10,991
Unrealized−$968
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses125 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions112
Markets (closed)539 / 350
History coverage12d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day278.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 112 History 539 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,749
7 days−$9,394
14 days−$10,991
30 days−$10,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 67¢ 82¢ $15,409 $18,980 +$3,571 (+23%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 67¢ 56¢ $6,587 $5,447 −$1,140 (-17%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 79¢ 98¢ $1,974 $2,426 +$452 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $996 $1,373 +$377 (+38%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 99¢ $1,006 $1,293 +$287 (+29%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 52¢ $1,945 $1,172 −$772 (-40%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 84¢ 100¢ $792 $938 +$146 (+18%)
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 38¢ 81¢ $408 $866 +$458 (+112%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 71¢ 75¢ $675 $713 +$38 (+6%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 62¢ 84¢ $497 $669 +$172 (+35%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 92¢ 88¢ $430 $410 −$20 (-5%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 51¢ 69¢ $254 $343 +$89 (+35%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 39¢ 66¢ $163 $276 +$113 (+70%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $955 $235 −$720 (-75%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $116 $198 +$82 (+71%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? No 87¢ 100¢ $173 $198 +$25 (+14%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $164 $149 −$16 (-9%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $83 $118 +$34 (+41%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $86 $100 +$14 (+16%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 44¢ 80¢ $50 $91 +$41 (+81%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? No 13¢ 25¢ $43 $82 +$40 (+93%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 39¢ 28¢ $103 $74 −$29 (-28%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 54¢ 41¢ $96 $72 −$24 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 13 $16 −$18 -115%
Will Jordan McCullough win American Idol Season 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $293 −$293 -100%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $368 −$375 -102%
Will Taylor Pendrith finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -41%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Jun 13 $105 −$151 -144%
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standi Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $466 −$536 -115%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the R Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 13 $151 −$152 -101%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $849 −$849 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Paysandu SC end in a draw? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Jun 13 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $2,730 −$2,730 -100%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parl Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will "THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) win Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Jun 13 $6 −$7 -112%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Cindy Burbank be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Nebraska? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $27 −$24 -87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Jun 13 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" in March? Jun 13 $4 −$5 -107%
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$691
sports 31% +$6,622
world 11% +$2,429
crypto 10% −$197
politics 7% −$1,421
culture 1% −$25
weather 0% −$61
economics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 4¢ $3 0m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 91¢ $7 33m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $43 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 84¢ $14 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 73¢ $9 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 73¢ $25 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 58¢ $16 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 87¢ $87 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 33¢ $25 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 34m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $10 35m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $4 35m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 36m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 36m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 45m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 470 -60.2% -64.0% 21% 18% -23.8%
≤30d 539 -48.4% -53.3% 23% 19% -24.7%
≤90d 539 -48.4% -53.3% 23% 19% -24.7%
all 539 -48.4% -53.3% 23% 19% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.3% 19% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -57.8% 15% -31.9%
15% -61.9% 12% -38.5%
20% -65.6% 10% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,582.63 · official $37,559.56 (match) · 3500 history records