Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8ee…f3a7 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+22%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$12
other 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)+30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +44.7% +30.9% 88% 81% +25.1%
≤30d 16 +44.7% +30.9% 88% 81% +25.1%
≤90d 16 +44.7% +30.9% 88% 81% +25.1%
all 16 +44.7% +30.9% 88% 81% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.9% 81% +25.1%
10% +18.4% 75% +13.1%
15% +6.9% 56% +2.2%
20% -3.6% 38% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +74% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 84¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$5 +224%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 51¢ $2 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $2 4h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 4h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 30¢ $2 5h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $2 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 70¢ $2 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $2 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $2 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $2 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $2 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $3 32h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.63 · official $26.63 (match) · 49 history records