Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb8ee…1a94 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+26%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% $0
sports 32% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +67.6% +51.7% 33% 33% +24.3%
≤30d 18 +67.6% +51.7% 33% 33% +24.3%
≤90d 18 +67.6% +51.7% 33% 33% +24.3%
all 18 +67.6% +51.7% 33% 33% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.7% 33% +24.3%
10% +37.2% 33% +12.4%
15% +23.9% 33% +1.5%
20% +11.8% 28% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +188% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1352%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.58 · official $11.58 (match) · 49 history records