Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8ed…156f crypto 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,058 (-11%) realized −$934 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%81W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$96
14 days−$500
30 days−$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 41% −$397
weather 23% −$160
crypto 14% −$162
other 13% −$114
world 5% −$4
sports 2% −$9
tech 2% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -12.1% -20.4% 18% 13% -14.7%
≤30d 114 -8.7% -17.4% 24% 7% -15.8%
≤90d 185 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 8% -15.9%
all 185 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 8% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 8% -15.9%
10% -26.6% 5% -24.0%
15% -33.7% 3% -31.3%
20% -40.2% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$934
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses81 / 104
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 190
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 83¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $85 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $110 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $170 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $99 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $89 −$2 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$4 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 11 $54 −$37 -68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $80 −$11 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$2 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$3 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $99 −$21 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $70 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $105 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $65 −$2 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $105 −$9 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $41 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 59¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 60¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 72¢ $76 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $82 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $85 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $52 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $55 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 52¢ $54 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 53¢ $56 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $60 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $62 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $19 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $19 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $16 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 3500 history records