Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8ed…3363 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$331 (-10%) realized −$324 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%60W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$421
crypto 9% +$201
other 1% −$15
politics 1% −$8
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 57% 57% +14.4%
≤30d 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +14.5%
≤90d 14 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +14.5%
all 115 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 48% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -16.1%
10% -22.5% 44% -24.1%
15% -30.0% 42% -31.4%
20% -36.9% 35% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses60 / 55
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage245d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Under $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Under $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $152 +$64 +42%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$55 -54%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $36 +$63 +175%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $103 +$57 +56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $103 −$20 -19%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 -39%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 -8%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $1 $0 +41%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland Feb 22 $1 $0 +32%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw? Feb 20 $1 $0 +30%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 19 $1 $0 +10%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $12 −$11 -86%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Dec 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $1 $0 +3%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Dec 20 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $19 −$8 -40%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 18 $14 +$5 +36%
Nets vs. Celtics Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Florida State vs. NC State Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Blues vs. Islanders Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Canucks Dec 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 Dec 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Kings vs. Sharks Dec 16 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Dec 16 $149 −$100 -67%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres Dec 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Dec 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 01 $319 +$201 +63%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Nov 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Hawaii vs. UNLV Nov 22 $1 +$1 +72%
Bruins vs. Kings Nov 22 $53 +$90 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $72 27m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $31 32m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 48m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1 51m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 51m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $83 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $27 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $53 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $53 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 50¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 37¢ $78 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 37¢ $22 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $59 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $3 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $18 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $21 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 25¢ $62 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $36 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $80 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 13¢ $98 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $103 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $103 3h
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 53¢ $8 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.71 · official $95.71 (match) · 279 history records