Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8eb…0dd6 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$6
sports 31% −$1
other 30% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 32 -6.0% -15.0% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage166d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -16%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $128 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $456 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 20 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $616 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 50m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 3h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 6h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 7h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 9h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 9h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 18h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 23h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 23h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 24h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 24h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 30h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 32h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 33h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.57 · official $426.57 (match) · 87 history records