Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8eb…cfcc crypto 1623 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$846 (-4%) realized −$795 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate86%1401W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$140
other 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 39% +4.9%
≤30d 1621 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 23% -10.0%
≤90d 1621 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 23% -10.0%
all 1621 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 23% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 23% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 13% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 8% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1401 / 220
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1621 / 1623
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$94 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$22 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$111 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$40 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$127 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$37 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$30 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 02 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 3500 history records