Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8e7…d8aa crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+14%) realized +$163 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 52L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$186
other 4% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 109 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 50% +2.5%
≤90d 109 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 50% +2.5%
all 109 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 50% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 45% -7.3%
15% -24.0% 40% -16.2%
20% -31.5% 28% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $51 $95 +$44 (+85%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 63¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$8 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$8 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$5 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$7 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$8 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$3 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$24 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$10 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $53 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $52 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.29 · official $98.54 · 251 history records