Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8e6…9767 other 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,001 (+5%) realized +$10,663 · open −$662
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%387W / 147L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$8,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$2,998
14 days+$3,070
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1,793
politics 28% +$203
other 19% +$3,670
economics 4% +$215
tech 4% +$93
sports 2% +$1,228
crypto 2% −$461
culture 1% +$55
finance 0% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +25.4% +13.4% 61% 43% +14.1%
≤30d 61 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 41% -12.8%
≤90d 204 +10.1% -0.4% 66% 37% -9.0%
all 534 +14.7% +3.8% 72% 33% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 33% -6.2%
10% -6.1% 24% -15.2%
15% -15.2% 19% -23.4%
20% -23.5% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$144 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$8,164
Realized+$10,663
Unrealized−$662
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses387 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions40
Markets (closed)534 / 575
History coverage237d ⚠
Avg bet$384
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $1,586 $2,435 +$849 (+53%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 36¢ 78¢ $488 $1,051 +$563 (+115%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $1,586 $737 −$849 (-54%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 90¢ $186 $537 +$351 (+189%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $938 $356 −$582 (-62%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 82¢ 82¢ $331 $331 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 96¢ $226 $322 +$95 (+42%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 45¢ 53¢ $224 $264 +$40 (+18%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $237 $201 −$36 (-15%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $173 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? Meta 99¢ 98¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $144 $148 +$5 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 46¢ $222 $138 −$84 (-38%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 18¢ $63 $123 +$60 (+94%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 2¢ 2¢ $77 $93 +$15 (+20%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $59 $92 +$33 (+55%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 22¢ 15¢ $125 $84 −$42 (-33%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $60 $74 +$13 (+22%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $69 $64 −$5 (-8%)
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? No 92¢ 79¢ $69 $59 −$10 (-14%)
VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 83¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,103 +$134 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $2,257 +$4 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $10 +$18 +173%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $377 −$373 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $466 +$31 +7%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $118 +$286 +242%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $268 −$202 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $48 +$228 +476%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $135 +$65 +48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $1,501 −$1,274 -85%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $527 +$508 +96%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $196 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $98 +$142 +144%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,231 +$2,410 +108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,779 +$961 +54%
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Jun 17 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $141 +$4 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$144 +168%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $128 +$192 +150%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$54 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$24 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $90 +$11 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $243 +$7 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $69 −$68 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $990 +$11 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,624 −$1,364 -84%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? Jun 01 $150 −$142 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,667 −$2,234 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $248 +$1,077 +435%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 May 29 $51 +$35 +69%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $129 +$21 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $226 +$24 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $6 9m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $3 40m
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL Yes 76¢ $128 45m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $1 1h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $69 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $213 1h
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 99¢ $150 1h
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $92 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $31 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $41 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 83¢ $168 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $293 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $2,261 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $2,257 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $944 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $58 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $70 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $78 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $23 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $12 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $75 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $211 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $67 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $88 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 41¢ $28 6h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY No 23¢ $4 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,164.22 · official $8,163.97 (match) · 3500 history records