Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e6…60e4 sports 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$33
politics 25% −$11
sports 24% −$14
crypto 8% −$5
economics 5% −$1
world 5% +$8
finance 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 50 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 163 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage170d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $356 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $394 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $619 −$3 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $523 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $703 −$4 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 10 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $825 −$3 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $295 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $268 −$3 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $444 −$2 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 30 $52 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $53 1h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $53 7h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $62 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $62 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 21d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 29d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 30d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 43d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 44d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 67d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $46 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $46 67d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 67d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 68d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 68d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 68d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 68d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $54 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $54 68d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 68d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 69d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $57 69d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $56 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $59 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $51 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $7 69d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $49 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 688 history records