Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e5…67a7 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$400 (-17%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$259
other 17% −$25
crypto 16% −$186
world 2% +$48
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.4% -38.9% 0% 0% -38.9%
≤30d 1 -32.4% -38.9% 0% 0% -38.9%
≤90d 1 -32.4% -38.9% 0% 0% -38.9%
all 33 -21.5% -28.9% 24% 21% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 21% -25.8%
10% -35.7% 18% -32.9%
15% -41.9% 18% -39.4%
20% -47.6% 15% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage193d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 28 $84 −$84 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $30 +$54 +178%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $1,431 −$236 -16%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 14 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 14 $15 −$8 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $43 −$11 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 13 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 13 $17 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 13 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 13 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Dec 13 $64 −$18 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 12 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 12 $84 −$24 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $17 +$1 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Dec 12 $75 +$42 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 11 $15 +$17 +116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 11 $25 +$25 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 11? Dec 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14? Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14? Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14? Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9? Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $41 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $84 113d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 114d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL No 10¢ $114 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 13¢ $104 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 36¢ $19 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 36¢ $104 184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL No 35¢ $463 190d
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? SELL No 38¢ $16 190d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 5¢ $7 190d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 36¢ $51 190d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $7 190d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 SELL Yes 7¢ $8 190d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 8¢ $10 190d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL Yes 6¢ $11 190d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL Yes 11¢ $16 190d
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $14 190d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $10 190d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 190d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 39¢ $20 190d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 11¢ $15 190d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 12¢ $15 190d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 14¢ $25 190d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 18¢ $26 190d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL Yes 14¢ $15 190d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL Yes 9¢ $15 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records