Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e4…2dae world 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$77,600 (+17%) realized +$78,713 · open −$1,113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%69W / 54L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$3,310per market
Trades / day108.6pace
Fees−$2,128est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$23,923
14 days+$26,141
30 days+$42,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$23,901
sports 30% +$7,272
other 15% +$7,173
crypto 6% +$1,656
politics 5% +$686
tech 3% +$787
finance 0% −$140
economics 0% +$465
culture 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +59.6% +44.4% 56% 38% +3.6%
≤30d 121 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 31% +0.3%
≤90d 123 +29.5% +17.2% 56% 31% +0.3%
all 123 +29.5% +17.2% 56% 31% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 31% +0.3%
10% +5.9% 22% -9.3%
15% ← realistic here -4.3% 15% -18.0%
20% -13.7% 13% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,803) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$893 vs −$344 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$6,163
Realized+$78,713
Unrealized−$1,113
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses69 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2,128
Open positions24
Markets (closed)123 / 137
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$3,310
Trades / day108.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $2,588 $2,643 +$55 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,490 $1,502 +$12 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $497 $752 +$255 (+51%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $1,445 $244 −$1,201 (-83%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $197 $208 +$11 (+6%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $212 $206 −$6 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $201 $169 −$32 (-16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $143 $131 −$12 (-9%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay No 91¢ 87¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $81 $44 −$38 (-46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $19 −$17 (-47%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 38¢ 48¢ $13 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 31¢ $27 $11 −$17 (-61%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 8¢ 0¢ $123 $1 −$122 (-99%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 67¢ 4¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 33¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $3,503 +$35 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $240 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $27 +$18 +66%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $1,449 +$447 +31%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $227 −$127 -56%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,446 +$301 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15,274 +$1,085 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $58,276 +$15,672 +27%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $411 +$108 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $230 +$60 +26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $606 −$228 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $476 +$879 +184%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $771 +$1,862 +241%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 14 $367 +$36 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $13 −$10 -78%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 14 $577 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,583 +$5,176 +54%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $855 +$67 +8%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5,676 −$3,327 -59%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,180 −$692 -17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,340 −$781 -33%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $85,299 +$7,221 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $9,082 −$13 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $165 +$9 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $7,949 −$1,192 -15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $3,677 −$496 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,392 −$892 -37%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $175 −$161 -92%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $270 −$260 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $4,342 −$729 -17%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $64 +$21 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $1,270 −$961 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,520 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,300 +$11 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $173 −$170 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $924 −$191 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $281 −$274 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3,768 +$709 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,683 +$279 +17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3,695 +$389 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $67 −$20 -31%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $1,036 +$13 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $2,803 +$282 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$65 -65%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $291 +$3 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $281 +$19 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13,764 +$1,738 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $254 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $240 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 99¢ $3,503 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $337 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $109 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $110 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,162.81 · official $6,162.64 (match) · 3500 history records