Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e4…cf43 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-5%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
sports 28% −$25
other 24% +$3
politics 8% $0
weather 2% −$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 22 -11.9% -20.3% 27% 9% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 9% -13.8%
10% -27.9% 9% -22.1%
15% -34.9% 9% -29.6%
20% -41.3% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage479d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $73 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $29 $0 +1%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $51 −$22 -43%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say 'million' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? Mar 04 $44 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Mar 04 $24 +$24 +100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February Feb 25 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%? Feb 24 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $19 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $38 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $38 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $20 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $35 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $17 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $6 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $5 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $11 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records