Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb8e3…3218 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-15%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$55
other 10% +$3
sports 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 2 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 2 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 0% -5.9%
all 14 -36.4% -42.5% 36% 14% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 14% -24.8%
10% -48.0% 14% -32.0%
15% -53.0% 14% -38.6%
20% -57.6% 7% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage126d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $46 +$3 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 14 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 14 $27 −$16 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 12 $40 −$17 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 12 $144 +$5 +4%
Spread: Washington Huskies (-12.5) Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $31 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 7h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $17 7h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $5 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $78 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $23 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $21 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $16 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $125 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $24 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records