Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e3…545d crypto 1610 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,216 (-14%) realized −$2,216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%1231W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day64.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -13.7% -21.9% 84% 2% -10.9%
≤30d 1214 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 35% -9.6%
≤90d 1631 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 37% -10.2%
all 1631 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 37% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 37% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 21% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 14% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1231 / 400
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1631 / 1610
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day64.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1631 Trades
no open positions (174 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -102%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -216%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -284%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -375%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -749%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -116%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $370 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $368 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $78 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $46 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records