Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8e2…c595
weather · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage74d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$92
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$13 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$7 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $5 +$18 +351%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? May 27 $5 +$51 +983%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $15 +$87 +580%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $26 +$31 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $20 −$7 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12? May 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$14
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 33% -64.0%
≤30d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 32% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 38 +5.8% -4.2% 37% 32% -12.5%
all 38 +5.8% -4.2% 37% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 32% -12.5%
10% -13.4% 29% -20.8%
15% -21.8% 26% -28.5%
20% -29.4% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 79 history records