Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8de…3111 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,857 (-6%) realized −$2,254 · open −$1,603
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 46L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,028per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$517est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$13,732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$4,763
sports 32% −$6,533
crypto 8% +$2,124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -47.9% -52.8% 19% 19% -29.1%
≤30d 57 -47.9% -52.8% 19% 19% -29.1%
≤90d 57 -47.9% -52.8% 19% 19% -29.1%
all 57 -47.9% -52.8% 19% 19% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.8% 19% -29.1%
10% -57.4% 19% -35.9%
15% ← realistic here -61.5% 19% -42.1%
20% -65.3% 18% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -65% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,275 vs −$469 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$13,732
Realized−$2,254
Unrealized−$1,603
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$517
Open positions8
Markets (closed)57 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,028
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10,000 $9,914 −$86 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 44¢ 30¢ $2,685 $1,869 −$816 (-30%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 32¢ $1,000 $984 −$16 (-2%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $500 $356 −$144 (-29%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $300 $238 −$62 (-21%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-16%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 10¢ $400 $145 −$255 (-64%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 14¢ 3¢ $250 $58 −$192 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $395 +$937 +238%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $257 −$250 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $616 −$600 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $814 +$1,173 +144%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,011 +$543 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $770 +$212 +28%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,431 +$3,998 +279%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,064 +$2,099 +42%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $411 −$400 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,263 −$235 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,375 −$3,296 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,111 −$89 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,341 −$1,320 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,479 −$1,453 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $917 −$900 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,121 −$1,100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,425 −$1,400 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,407 +$1,489 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $371 −$350 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $360 −$52 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $256 +$616 +241%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$723 +71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $209 −$204 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$337 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $242 −$230 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1,763 +$1,901 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1,056 −$1,021 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,290 −$2,250 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $410 −$400 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $699 16m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $409 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $507 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1,522 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $256 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $1,020 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10,126 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $10,156 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $51 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $206 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $1,987 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,553 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $305 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $103 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $205 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $510 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $395 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $308 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $206 18h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $205 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $93 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 4¢ $51 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 15¢ $937 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $5,429 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 7¢ $206 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,175 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $5,988 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 9¢ $205 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,731.60 · official $26,729.94 · 162 history records