Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8db…458d weather 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,966 (-8%) realized −$1,975 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate38%87W / 139L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day123.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$478
14 days−$2,377
30 days−$2,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$2,046
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -41.4% -47.0% 11% 7% -31.0%
≤30d 226 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 10% -16.8%
≤90d 226 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 10% -16.8%
all 226 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 10% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 10% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 6% -24.8%
15% -46.2% 4% -32.1%
20% -51.5% 4% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$1,975
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses87 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)226 / 233
History coverage15d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day123.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $69 $78 +$9 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C or higher on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$26 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 19 $92 −$87 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $109 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $61 −$12 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $157 −$55 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $395 −$76 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 87¢ $84 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $84 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $85 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 45¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.85 · official $80.85 (match) · 2046 history records