Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8db…11ce other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$284 (-31%) realized −$283 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$76
14 days−$225
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$273
sports 8% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 50% -36.1%
≤30d 6 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤90d 6 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -37.5%
all 6 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 33% -37.5%
10% -36.1% 33% -43.5%
15% -42.2% 33% -48.9%
20% -47.9% 33% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$86 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $114 +$70 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $124 −$7 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $77 +$47 +61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $150 −$73 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $183 2m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $183 6m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $114 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $115 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $118 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $118 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $124 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $77 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $77 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $150 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.08 · official $181.08 (match) · 12 history records