Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8da…7842 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
sports 20% −$13
politics 19% $0
other 19% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.5% -7.2% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 26 +1.2% -8.4% 31% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 1% -9.5%
all 76 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 4% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage518d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? No 96¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $126 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $12 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $67 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $45 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $32 +$2 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $21 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $167 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $6 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $14 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $31 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $4 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $4 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 97¢ $33 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 319 history records