Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8da…9d35 weather 1316 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1269W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$40
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$40
sports 8% −$5
other 7% +$31
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 789 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1304 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.6%
all 1304 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,017
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1269 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1304 / 1316
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 −$8 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 −$21 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $69 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $91 0m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $126 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $117 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $139 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $80 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $91 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $121 8h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $124 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $83 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $33 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $91 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $42 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $32 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $107 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $17 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 14h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $36 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,016.67 · official $1,016.67 (match) · 3500 history records