Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8da…c737 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$21
politics 38% −$19
sports 6% +$37
crypto 5% −$2
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 +4.0% -5.9% 6% 6% -9.5%
all 132 +1.8% -7.9% 8% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×11.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage114d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $302 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $277 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $322 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $344 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $342 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $330 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 39h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $57 8d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $57 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 21d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $301 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $302 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $257 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 383 history records