Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8d7…baca sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%63W / 37L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$120
other 29% +$142
economics 11% −$4
crypto 8% +$1
world 1% +$4
politics 1% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.4% +21.6% 80% 60% +20.8%
≤30d 24 -12.2% -20.6% 67% 29% -8.2%
≤90d 84 -5.3% -14.4% 60% 32% -10.0%
all 100 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 36% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 36% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 28% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 24% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses63 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 108
History coverage242d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$47 +132%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $7 +$3 +40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $899 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $30 +$40 +134%
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $3 +$2 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $896 +$3 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 28 $799 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 27 $899 +$1 +0%
World Championships: USA vs. Hungary May 26 $250 $0 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $594 +$6 +1%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4 +$1 +23%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Thiago Monteiro May 20 $6 +$11 +177%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3 +$2 +44%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian May 19 $800 +$2 +0%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $849 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season May 15 $12 −$4 -36%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $100 +$30 +31%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kuan-Yi Lee May 12 $897 +$3 +0%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $899 +$1 +0%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $3 +$2 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 +$148 +146%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng May 05 $4 $0 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 $0 -6%
Merida Open Akron: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez May 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 12? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-01? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $151 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 34¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 25¢ $5 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $140 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $36 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 43¢ $5 10d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 88¢ $4 17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $3 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 12¢ $5 20d
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 71¢ $7 20d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $899 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 37¢ $4 20d
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 42¢ $30 21d
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY AEK 13¢ $3 22d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 100¢ $5 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Magda Linette $1 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $899 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 100¢ $896 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $3 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 15¢ $2 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 56¢ $34 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 100¢ $695 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 100¢ $105 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $611 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.93 · official $168.93 (match) · 234 history records