Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8d7…f7f2 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$25
other 33% −$5
sports 16% −$10
economics 9% −$1
tech 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 40 +0.6% -9.0% 22% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$549) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage188d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $106 +$5 +5%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $1,004 −$9 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $108 +$1 +0%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 20 $549 −$18 -3%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $483 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $483 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $484 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $485 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $485 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $549 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $549 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 21 $26 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 21 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $13 +$1 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jan 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 23 $22 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $112 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $106 14d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 36d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 87¢ $995 38d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 38d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 38d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 38d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $1,006 38d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $1,007 38d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $1,006 38d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $1,007 38d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 38d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 38d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 38d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 64d
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re SELL No 94¢ $45 67d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $482 67d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $483 67d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $483 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records