Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8d4…4e3a sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%20W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 23% −$4
other 18% −$1
economics 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
world 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 219 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses20 / 199
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage173d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $316 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 24 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $270 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $150 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $101 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $108 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $37 14d
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $38 14d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 22d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 36d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $50 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $50 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $40 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $40 117d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 117d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 117d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 117d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 117d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $21 117d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $23 117d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $21 117d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $26 117d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $49 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 117d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 117d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 117d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $45 117d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $45 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 117d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 117d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.42 · official $44.42 (match) · 849 history records