Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8cb…bdaa world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
sports 33% −$7
other 18% $0
weather 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 17 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 24 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 8% -9.5%
all 40 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 18% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 10% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage535d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $79 −$6 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $3 +$1 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $32 +$8 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $532 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 18 $1 $0 +17%
DePaul vs. Xavier Feb 16 $2 +$4 +233%
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Feb 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February Feb 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Maryland vs. Nebraska Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Feb 14 $5 +$6 +104%
La Salle vs. St. Joseph's Feb 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Jan 20 $13 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 59m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $7 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $26 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $32 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records