Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B8 0xb8c8…07d6 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$116 (+28%) realized +$123 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip

Net edge+60%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$73

7 days+$104

14 days+$104

30 days+$104

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)+60.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+131.8%	+109.7%	22%	22%	+75.4%
≤30d	9	+131.8%	+109.7%	22%	22%	+75.4%
≤90d	10	+121.9%	+100.7%	30%	30%	+63.1%
all	16	+76.8%	+60.0%	44%	31%	+28.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.0%	31%	+28.8%
10%	+44.7%	19%	+16.5%
15%	+30.7%	12%	+5.2%
20%	+17.9%	12%	-5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +161% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$123

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Open positions7

Markets (closed)16 / 23

History coverage177d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-10%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$15	$16	+$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$2	$3	+$0 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	+$133	+1290%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$10	+$61	+596%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Mar 31	$31	+$10	+33%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Mar 17	$40	−$8	-21%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Mar 14	$34	+$6	+18%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	Mar 02	$30	+$3	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Dec 22	$21	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Dec 22	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Dec 22	$1	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	3¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	5d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	64¢	$42	78d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY No	48¢	$31	90d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	SELL No	64¢	$31	92d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	BUY No	81¢	$40	95d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	SELL No	79¢	$40	95d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY No	67¢	$34	98d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	107d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$9	177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$2	177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$10	177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$2	177d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.71 · official $130.71 (match) · 39 history records