Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb8c6…f318 crypto 1220 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%1033W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$31
14 days−$5
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$50
weather 1% −$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 460 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 16% -11.0%
≤30d 1074 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 1220 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 12% -10.4%
all 1220 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 12% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 6% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1033 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1220 / 1220
History coverage56d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1220 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2489 history records