Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8c4…7385 sports 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258,024 (-90%) realized −$254,473 · open −$3,551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%97W / 152L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,134per market
Trades / day169.3pace
Fees−$4,045est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$23,878
other 16% −$5,633
crypto 2% −$1,604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 249 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 249 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 39% -18.4%
all 249 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 39% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 39% -18.4%
10% -24.9% 39% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 39% -33.3%
20% -38.8% 38% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$1,467) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,366 vs −$1,053 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized−$254,473
Unrealized−$3,551
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses97 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$4,045
Open positions3
Markets (closed)249 / 252
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$1,134
Trades / day169.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 5¢ $3,263 $423 −$2,840 (-87%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 20¢ $1,015 $378 −$636 (-63%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Over 48¢ 32¢ $221 $145 −$75 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $1,344 +$2,623 +195%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $1,670 −$1,668 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,053 −$1,033 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $473 −$462 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $870 −$855 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,061 −$2,030 -98%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $1,063 −$1,059 -100%
Valencia vs. Barcelona: O/U 175.5 Jun 18 $2,231 −$2,213 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,590 −$2,582 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $1,133 +$1,458 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,271 +$703 +55%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $369 +$380 +103%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,765 −$2,720 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,303 +$3,353 +146%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $1,014 +$960 +95%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $1,600 −$1,590 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $1,293 −$1,275 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
France vs. Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $215 −$215 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $241 −$241 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 17 $426 −$426 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $394 −$394 -100%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $585 −$585 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $513 −$513 -100%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 17 $494 −$494 -100%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 17 $652 −$652 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 17 $993 −$993 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $955 −$955 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $920 −$920 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $845 −$845 -100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $872 −$872 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $490 −$490 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,566 −$1,566 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 17 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,743 −$1,743 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $1,732 −$1,732 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,028 21m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $999 39m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $174 45m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $47 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2,235 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $48 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $415 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $150 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $32 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $27 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,020 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $459 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $473 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $592 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $870 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,061 3h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $66 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $55 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $2 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $1 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $31 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $5 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $41 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $22 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $22 4h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 43¢ $23 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.97 · official $946.97 (match) · 3500 history records