Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8c3…d4df crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$18
other 15% −$6
sports 2% +$62
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +39.7% +26.4% 56% 36% -1.6%
≤30d 25 +39.7% +26.4% 56% 36% -1.6%
≤90d 25 +39.7% +26.4% 56% 36% -1.6%
all 25 +39.7% +26.4% 56% 36% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.4% 36% -1.6%
10% +14.3% 32% -11.1%
15% +3.3% 28% -19.7%
20% -6.8% 24% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$23 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$5 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$70 +874%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$55 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$54 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$17 +171%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$4 +522%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records