Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B8 0xb8c2…a647 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$7
tech 5% $0
weather 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+80.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +99.9% +80.9% 67% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 3 +99.9% +80.9% 67% 33% -2.9%
≤90d 3 +99.9% +80.9% 67% 33% -2.9%
all 3 +99.9% +80.9% 67% 33% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.9% 33% -2.9%
10% +63.6% 33% -12.2%
15% +47.8% 33% -20.7%
20% +33.3% 33% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage51d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 19 $110 −$6 -6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $107 1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $104 1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $110 39h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 96¢ $12 51d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.64 · official $104.64 (match) · 7 history records