Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8c2…96ca weather 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$593 (-2%) realized −$586 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate67%167W / 84L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$690
crypto 6% +$6
other 6% −$7
sports 1% +$48
tech 1% +$10
culture 0% +$3
politics 0% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.6% -22.8% 26% 26% -2.8%
≤30d 42 -14.6% -22.8% 26% 26% -2.8%
≤90d 221 -16.8% -24.7% 66% 9% -11.9%
all 251 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 16% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 16% -11.7%
10% -27.1% 14% -20.2%
15% -34.1% 13% -27.9%
20% -40.6% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$586
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses167 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)251 / 260
History coverage221d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 66¢ $76 $66 −$10 (-14%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3 $4 +$2 (+50%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 59¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$4 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$11 +262%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +119%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +474%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$16 +712%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20? Apr 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 19? Apr 20 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Apr 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19? Apr 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 19? Apr 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 18? Apr 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? Apr 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $76 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $3 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $4 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $3 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $3 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $2 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $3 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes $2 31h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.91 · official $91.91 (match) · 1305 history records