Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8c1…c8c1 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+43%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$32
other 14% +$5
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$3
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.1% +4.2% 75% 75% +36.6%
≤30d 4 +15.1% +4.2% 75% 75% +36.6%
≤90d 4 +15.1% +4.2% 75% 75% +36.6%
all 11 -34.9% -41.1% 36% 36% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 36% +27.3%
10% -46.7% 27% +15.1%
15% -51.9% 27% +4.0%
20% -56.6% 27% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.27 per $1 lost it wins $6.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage101d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $75,000 first on March 17? Mar 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records