Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8bd…fc74 sports 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,118 (-17%) realized −$1,040 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%112W / 340L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$175
14 days−$172
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,002
other 3% −$118
world 2% −$105
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -20.0% -27.6% 33% 33% -21.2%
≤30d 105 -31.4% -37.9% 25% 25% -27.5%
≤90d 315 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 25% -28.5%
all 452 -26.5% -33.5% 25% 25% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 25% -25.6%
10% -39.9% 25% -32.7%
15% -45.7% 25% -39.2%
20% -51.0% 24% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,040
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses112 / 340
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)452 / 455
History coverage151d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 41¢ 38¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 45¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 303 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $31 +$19 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $93 +$181 +196%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 −$70 -80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $29 +$43 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$17 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$22 +76%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $27 +$31 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$34 +92%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$46 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $31 +$47 +155%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 −$74 -72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$28 +223%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$134 +873%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $31 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $45 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $274 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 9¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 7¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $29 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $43 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $72 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $19 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $29 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $24 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $11 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $26 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.32 · official $53.32 (match) · 817 history records