Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8bc…ea6a sports 511 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$779 (+6%) realized +$1,023 · open −$244
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%167W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$206
14 days+$249
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$79
sports 29% +$180
world 15% −$63
finance 2% +$16
politics 2% −$1
weather 1% −$32
culture 1% −$12
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 67% 50% +10.1%
≤30d 18 -9.5% -18.1% 61% 44% +3.7%
≤90d 492 -23.6% -30.8% 34% 24% -6.7%
all 492 -23.6% -30.8% 34% 24% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.8% 24% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 18% -15.6%
15% -43.5% 14% -23.8%
20% -49.0% 12% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,505
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses167 / 325
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions19
Markets (closed)492 / 511
History coverage80d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $773 $639 −$134 (-17%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $476 $448 −$28 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 67¢ 59¢ $433 $382 −$51 (-12%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 81¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 72¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 49¢ 14¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-72%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 39¢ 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 56¢ 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 13¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 94¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 28¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $327 +$49 +15%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $296 +$104 +35%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $136 +$64 +47%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $65 −$10 -16%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $90 −$4 -5%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $87 −$13 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $382 +$47 +12%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $193 +$30 +15%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $173 +$20 +12%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +89%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 +$19 +35%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $31 +$7 +24%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 17 $18 +$1 +5%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 17 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $8 −$5 -66%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $244 +$21 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $1,277 +$274 +21%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $4 $0 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $22 +$7 +32%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $27 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 03 $3 −$1 -36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +4%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? May 03 $27 +$3 +12%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 03 $2 +$1 +20%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 03 $2 +$1 +27%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? May 03 $3 +$1 +47%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 03 $3 +$1 +37%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 03 $5 −$1 -17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 03 $4 $0 +8%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? May 03 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $184 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $65 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $63 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $121 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $148 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $52 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $93 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $38 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $18 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $46 6d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 6d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,505.05 · official $1,505.10 (match) · 2789 history records