Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8ba…f170 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$6
other 19% −$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% −$2
weather 2% $0
sports 2% +$18
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 7% -8.7%
all 43 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 7% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 7% -7.5%
10% -19.7% 5% -16.4%
15% -27.5% 2% -24.4%
20% -34.6% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage480d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 78¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $26 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $68 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $49 +$4 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $44 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ximena Rincón win the Chilean presidential election? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on May May 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 15 $24 $0 -1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 10 $25 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 04 $2 $0 +23%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +3%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Bybit withdrawals halted for >24 hours before April? Mar 27 $1 $0 -33%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on March 27? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $25 −$4 -14%
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Mar 20 $13 +$18 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $48 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $20 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $40 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $8 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $8 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $4 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $37 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $54 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $54 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $26 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $24 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $7 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $17 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $49 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $49 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.67 · official $48.67 (match) · 155 history records