Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

B8 0xb8b9…7cbd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-69.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-66.7%	-69.9%	0%	0%	-76.0%
≤30d	3	-66.7%	-69.9%	0%	0%	-76.0%
≤90d	3	-66.7%	-69.9%	0%	0%	-76.0%
all	3	-66.7%	-69.9%	0%	0%	-76.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.9%	0%	-76.0%
10%	-72.7%	0%	-78.3%
15%	-75.4%	0%	-80.4%
20%	-77.8%	0%	-82.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -73% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -67% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$70 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$209

Realized+$3

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	27¢	28¢	$150	$158	+$8 (+6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$60	$51	−$9 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 29	$9	−$9	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 29	$76	$0	-0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$205	−$200	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$7	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$2	35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$76	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	27¢	$155	9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	10¢	$62	9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	44¢	$205	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.28 · official $209.33 (match) · 7 history records