Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8b7…011c
crypto · 396 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$28 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses264 / 130
Open positions2
Markets (closed)394 / 396
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 394 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 95¢ 42¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Yes 43¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 20? No 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 29? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -32%
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 09 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption wo Jun 09 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +72%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 05 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$23
other 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? SELL No 60¢ $1 3d
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption wo SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $1 5d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 57% 29% -14.9%
≤30d 312 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 394 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 32% -12.5%
all 394 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 32% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 17% -20.9%
15% -29.9% 9% -28.5%
20% -36.8% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $4.55 · 1106 history records