Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b6…7fc8 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+5%) realized +$66 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$68
14 days+$71
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$187
politics 24% +$44
other 20% +$31
economics 6% +$159
sports 3% +$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 22% +23.3%
≤30d 20 -20.8% -28.4% 45% 10% -11.7%
≤90d 69 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 26% -5.6%
all 69 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 26% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 26% -5.6%
10% -16.5% 20% -14.6%
15% -24.6% 17% -22.8%
20% -32.0% 17% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)69 / 84
History coverage89d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $43 +$80 +188%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $72 +$5 +6%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +194%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +4%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $96 −$18 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $19 −$13 -68%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $41 +$127 +306%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $34 +$11 +34%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $67 +$21 +32%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 02 $1 −$1 -80%
Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? May 01 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 27 $11 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 26 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 25 $8 +$33 +428%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 21 $1 +$1 +75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $47 +$26 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $24 +$4 +18%
US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $126 −$96 -76%
US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +6%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $109 −$3 -2%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $24 −$4 -18%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $9 +$11 +116%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $97 +$13 +14%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 10 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $32 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $3 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 25h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes $0 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 17¢ $5 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No $4 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 16¢ $1 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $47 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.22 · official $164.22 (match) · 877 history records