Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8b5…280c other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,552 (+2%) realized +$1,462 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%41W / 89L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 416d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% +$5,161
world 21% +$14,406
crypto 20% −$6,409
sports 11% +$2,290
politics 10% +$621
tech 7% −$5,437
culture 4% −$3,400
economics 3% −$1,978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +62.3% +46.9% 43% 43% +131.2%
≤30d 62 +37.1% +24.0% 39% 39% +24.1%
≤90d 107 +21.9% +10.3% 27% 27% -29.6%
all 130 +26.5% +14.4% 32% 31% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 31% -6.8%
10% +3.5% 28% -15.7%
15% -6.5% 28% -23.9%
20% -15.7% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,143 vs −$469 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses41 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 148
History coverage416d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $793 +$93 (+13%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $153 +$376 +246%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-He Jun 19 $103 +$1,099 +1070%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$148 +73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombi Jun 18 $203 +$196 +96%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will A Jun 17 $256 +$1,156 +451%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $205 −$37 -18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$4 -4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1. Jun 17 $102 +$277 +271%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $229 −$225 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$91 +90%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$115 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $254 +$331 +130%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $512 −$500 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,700 +$8,461 +498%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 +$273 +134%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 AND Unit Jun 13 $51 +$283 +552%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$106 -52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $519 −$215 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $208 −$84 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $104 −$62 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $104 −$76 -73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$115 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3. BUY 32¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $31 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $203 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to S BUY 22¢ $205 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 28¢ $306 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 55¢ $203 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18 BUY 18¢ $205 35h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 23¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $97 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $169 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombi BUY 50¢ $203 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $98 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 31¢ $204 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $229 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.50 · official $1,419.49 · 285 history records