Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8b4…1f6e
world · 90 markets active 3h ago
1.5score
+$36,918 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,306 · open +$12,817
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150,818
Realized+$24,306
Unrealized+$12,817
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions33
Markets (closed)57 / 90
History coverage110d
Avg bet$4,903
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 33 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$588
14 days+$20,122
30 days+$24,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 87¢ $28,696 $27,739 −$956 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $18,229 $25,337 +$7,109 (+39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 71¢ 78¢ $21,840 $24,106 +$2,267 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 64¢ $13,353 $20,718 +$7,365 (+55%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 58¢ 56¢ $9,980 $9,715 −$265 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $5,876 $6,569 +$693 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 31¢ $6,284 $6,229 −$55 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $5,721 $6,088 +$367 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 66¢ $3,666 $4,705 +$1,039 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $4,192 $3,709 −$482 (-12%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $3,989 $3,546 −$443 (-11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 43¢ 29¢ $5,144 $3,491 −$1,654 (-32%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 48¢ 78¢ $1,079 $1,754 +$675 (+63%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 51¢ 55¢ $1,496 $1,607 +$111 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 20¢ $2,106 $1,234 −$872 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 41¢ 46¢ $836 $927 +$92 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $846 $807 −$39 (-5%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 40¢ 57¢ $358 $510 +$152 (+42%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $661 $502 −$159 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 80¢ $414 $491 +$76 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $292 $213 −$79 (-27%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 27¢ 64¢ $88 $209 +$121 (+138%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 23¢ $315 $198 −$117 (-37%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 54¢ 4¢ $2,099 $164 −$1,935 (-92%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $124 $84 −$40 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,629 +$29 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,907 +$53 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $258 −$258 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $411 −$411 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $620 +$164 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19,146 +$15,505 +81%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20,711 +$2,875 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $9,843 +$1,380 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,538 +$783 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $984 −$421 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $1,149 −$1,122 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,993 +$507 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,281 +$4,640 +362%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $2,568 +$465 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $1,395 +$105 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $5,326 −$6,240 -117%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 04 $32,024 −$27,519 -86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 02 $7,207 −$7,207 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,185 +$170 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,655 +$2,711 +164%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $8,862 +$4,407 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $8,482 +$5,929 +70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $17,476 +$2,601 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $19,749 +$5,704 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $87 +$35 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 28 $10,510 +$7,727 +74%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $9,744 +$373 +4%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? Apr 23 $76 −$23 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $11,227 +$1,370 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 20 $1,007 −$1,004 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 20 $3,328 −$3,301 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 20 $10,670 −$10,210 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 20 $17,452 −$16,935 -97%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Apr 13 $52 −$23 -45%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $80 −$45 -56%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $1,000 +$259 +26%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 12 $656 −$289 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 11 $17,243 +$9,310 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 10 $1,104 −$166 -15%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 09 $663 +$359 +54%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 09 $67 +$19 +29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 09 $2,764 +$1,320 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $5,196 −$5,081 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $376 −$352 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $4,974 −$4,521 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $682 +$160 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $19,041 +$6,989 +37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $3,466 +$36,999 +1068%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 91% +$24,026
finance 9% +$13,338
sports 1% −$196
politics 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1,228 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $578 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2,183 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $61 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $6 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $14 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $481 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $24 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $255 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $9 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $115 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $12 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $56 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $43 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $2 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $12 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 16 +8.5% -1.9% 69% 50% +20.0%
≤90d 56 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 46% -1.1%
all 57 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 46% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 46% -2.3%
10% -8.9% 35% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -17.7% 25% -20.1%
20% -25.8% 18% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150,818.01 · official $150,648.47 (match) · 3500 history records