Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8b3…53f0 crypto 1522 markets active 5d ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$445 (-6%) realized −$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%917W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$61
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -8.0% -16.7% 54% 40% -16.1%
≤30d 1240 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 47% -12.6%
≤90d 1522 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 43% -11.5%
all 1522 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 36% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 31% -27.7%
20% -34.8% 28% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses917 / 605
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1522 / 1522
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1522 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$20 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records