Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b3…a419 crypto 1055 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,112 (+37%) realized +$5,112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate46%483W / 572L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day182.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$526
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 418 +4.0% -5.9% 44% 27% -4.0%
≤30d 1055 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 26% -8.9%
≤90d 1055 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 26% -8.9%
all 1055 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 26% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 13% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 7% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses483 / 572
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1055 / 1055
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day182.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1055 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records