Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8b1…513a
weather · 1204 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$383 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$380 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses399 / 797
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1196 / 1204
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 16 History 1196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$70
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? No 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 3? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$355
sports 4% +$9
other 2% −$27
politics 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 75¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -41.9% -47.5% 51% 10% -33.6%
≤30d 385 -30.0% -36.6% 32% 21% -29.2%
≤90d 1196 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 27% -23.8%
all 1196 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 27% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 27% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 25% -31.1%
15% -35.6% 23% -37.8%
20% -41.9% 21% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.99 · official $7.99 (match) · 3500 history records