Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb8af…36d7 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+12%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$14
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$6
sports 39% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.3% -26.1% 47% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 18 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 44% +1.0%
≤90d 18 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 44% +1.0%
all 18 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 44% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% +1.0%
10% -22.4% 33% -8.7%
15% -29.9% 28% -17.5%
20% -36.8% 17% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 $0 +11%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$11 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $7 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $7 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $30 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $12 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $18 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $69 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 35h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records