trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $113 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 14 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 14 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? | Apr 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Apr 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? | Apr 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? | Apr 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 06 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 48% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.4% |