Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb8ac…f622 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-5%) realized −$69 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%24W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 89% 11% -11.3%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 89% 11% -11.3%
≤90d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 89% 11% -11.3%
all 27 -3.8% -12.9% 89% 11% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 11% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses24 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $90 $102 +$12 (+13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 92¢ 86¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-7%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $91 +$11 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $91 +$11 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $91 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $90 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $91 +$13 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $71 −$54 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$13 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $91 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $91 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $91 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $91 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $91 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $91 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $90 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $71 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.81 · official $254.46 · 55 history records