Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8aa…e5e5 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 31% −$2
politics 20% +$3
sports 10% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 44 -2.2% -11.5% 39% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage278d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 30 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 14m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $2 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $35 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $29 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $27 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $2 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $37 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $7 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records