Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb8a7…c881 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$196 (-3%) realized −$102 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$4,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$253
sports 30% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.2% -12.5% 58% 53% -11.7%
≤30d 19 -3.2% -12.5% 58% 53% -11.7%
≤90d 19 -3.2% -12.5% 58% 53% -11.7%
all 19 -3.2% -12.5% 58% 53% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 53% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -20.1%
15% -28.5% 37% -27.8%
20% -35.5% 26% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$117 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,248
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions14
Markets (closed)19 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $720 $715 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $540 $555 +$15 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $566 $467 −$100 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $386 $417 +$31 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $420 $406 −$14 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $354 $328 −$26 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $266 $268 +$2 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $190 $195 +$5 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 64¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$57 +38%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$121 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$167 +109%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $75 +$8 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $118 +$32 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$18 -35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $150 +$9 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $302 +$73 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $153 +$264 +173%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 13m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $726 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $152 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $152 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $411 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $431 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $33 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $11 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $523 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $75 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $118 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $386 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $152 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $51 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $150 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,248.32 · official $4,247.01 (match) · 67 history records