Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8a7…7674
world · 87 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$85,509 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$87,694 · open −$1,483
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$187,504
Realized+$87,694
Unrealized−$1,483
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses55 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage227d
Avg bet$15,969
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 5 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,040
14 days+$17,918
30 days+$32,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $124,551 $124,563 +$12 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 80¢ $48,649 $46,499 −$2,150 (-4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $8,656 $8,984 +$328 (+4%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $7,065 $7,395 +$330 (+5%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 69¢ 66¢ $66 $63 −$2 (-4%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No 80¢ 0¢ $6,095 $0 −$6,095 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $8,800 +$100 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $7,458 −$5,941 -80%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 05 $1,385 +$33 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 05 $101,726 +$2,768 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $62,309 +$9,923 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $25,493 +$6,946 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,475 +$3,025 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $15,836 +$1,064 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $107,680 +$11,952 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,800 +$1,177 +13%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,579 +$1,074 +42%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 11 $2,454 +$131 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $864 +$30 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 08 $5,115 −$960 -19%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $24,109 +$2,386 +10%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $26,601 +$2,949 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $905 +$126 +14%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $51 −$47 -93%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $19,358 +$3,971 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 23 $157,515 +$16,611 +10%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 15 $4,928 +$290 +6%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Apr 08 $1,764 +$170 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $28,873 +$1,914 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $2,814 −$629 -22%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $2,800 +$635 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 02 $2,390 +$164 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $62,167 +$11,052 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $11,760 +$487 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 15 $1,606 +$60 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 15 $5 +$13 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$65,736
other 30% +$19,564
politics 9% +$1,821
economics 6% −$148
sports 0% −$706
crypto 0% −$53
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9,164 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $5,502 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,958 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5,344 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2,115 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $58 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,846 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $0 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $13 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $203 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $68 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $90 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $97 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $24 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,682 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $639 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $85 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5,091 3d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.8% -30.2% 75% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 11 +4.3% -5.6% 91% 55% -1.3%
≤90d 50 -9.2% -17.9% 72% 36% -0.4%
all 82 -10.0% -18.5% 67% 29% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 29% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 16% -12.0%
15% -33.4% 10% -20.5%
20% -40.0% 7% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187,503.94 · official $187,503.94 (match) · 1011 history records